2002 Highlights
- Vitosha Research carried out 50
social, economic, marketing, media and public opinion projects in
2002. Quantitative and qualitative surveys were conducted,
including more than 23, 500 face - to - face interviews, 177 in
depth interviews and 30 focus groups. The collected information was
summarized in over 60 analytical reports, policy papers and
newspaper publications.
- In 2002 Vitosha Research continued to
systematically expand its scope of activities to cover neighboring
and other countries. The Human Security Survey commissioned by the
UNDP Regional Bureau in Bratislava and conducted in the Caucasus
region (Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan)was an important project in
this respect.
- Three Eurobarometer Surveys were carried out by a
consortium of agencies from EU candidate Central and East European
countries. Information about the general attitudes of the Bulgarian
public towards EU, as well as public opinion and assessments of the
process of European integration in Bulgaria was obtained.
- The results of the second international survey,
which is the main component of another round of anti - corruption
diagnostics, were presented in April 2002. The corruption
monitoring methodology employed provides information about the
level of corruption in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Yugoslavia. It has become baseline
resource for national and international institutions and
organizations.
- Vitosha Research conducted two surveys among the
general public, one in the business sector and one among public
officials as part of the Corruption Monitoring System of
Coalition 2000 .
- The Conflict Vulnerability Assessment study
conducted in cooperation with the Conflict Management Group
included analysis of the social and political risk over the period
1989 - 2001. The main objective of the assessment was to identify
current and potential sources of conflict and instability in the
country.
- In 2002 Vitosha Research completed the project
“Assessment of the Progress Made by Bulgaria towards Sustainable
Development in the Context of the RIO+10 Process ”. A comprehensive
analytical report, it outlines the main achievements, challenges
and recommendations for the future progress of the Rio+10 process
in Bulgaria.
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I. Social and Economic
Research
The main thematic issues of the implemented social
and economic research projects included the assessment of the
existing and potential conflicts in Bulgaria, the coping mechanisms
of elderly pensioners throughout Bulgaria, crime victimization,
regulatory and administrative costs for the private sector firms
and others. In the course of the work on these projects, some of
them commissioned by the Councils of Ministers, World Bank, UNDP,
USAID, American Red Cross and Open Society Foundation, Vitosha
Research conducted over 4300 face - to - face interviews, 15 focus
groups and 177 in - depth interviews with Members of Parliament,
ministry and state agency officials, representatives of municipal
administrations, businessmen, academics, NGO leaders and
journalists.
1. Conflict Vulnerability
Assessment
The survey was part of the efforts of the
USAID/Bulgaria to track the past, present and potential future
conflicts in Bulgaria, the regional dimensions of conflict
vulnerability, to identify the key conflict players and at - risk
groups, and to determine the root causes and immediate factors of
the conflicts. The study was based on more than 50 in - depth
interviews. The interviews included wide range of respondents,
dispersed geographically throughout Bulgaria – political leaders
and Members of Parliament, national and local government officials,
representatives of labor organizations, members of the Turkish,
Roma and Pomak communities, representatives of civil society
institu - tions (NGOs), journalists, business associations and
trade unions. The study concluded that Bulgaria was unlikely to
suffer the kind of ethno - political conflict that had been
experienced by some of its neighbors, even if tensions should
increase again in neighboring countries. Still some important
causes of conflict vulnerability could be identified - increasing
stratification of society, increased marginalization and
ghettoization of a significant minority population, low level of
public trust in state institutions and political parties, limited
capacity for conflict management, etc. None of these causes is in
itself sufficient to produce conflict, but together they create a
volatile situation ripe for escalation through activities of
“conflict agents ”or trigger events.
2. Assessment of Sustainable
Development Initiatives in Bulgaria The project on
Assessment of Sustainable Development Initiatives in Bulgaria was
commissioned by UNDP Capacity 21 Program. The main task of the
project was to make an in - depth analysis of the country ’s
progress towards sustainable development in the context of the
Rio+10 process. The approach adopted in assessing Bulgaria ’s
progress towards sustainable development involved the use of
various quantitative and qualitative methods targeting a number of
different institutions, organizations and communities. The
qualitative survey comprised 50 in - depth interviews with
representatives of the following target groups:ministry officials,
representatives of the district administrations of Lovech and
Veliko Turnovo Districts, and of the municipal administrations in
Velingrad, Asenovgrad, Teteven, Svishtov, Elena and Lyaskovets
Municipalities, NGO representatives and business persons.
A quantitative survey was also conducted among
participants in the pilot projects of Capacity 21 Program in the
municipalities of Velingrad and Svishtov. Content analysis was made
of existing sources of information concerning the evolution of the
Rio+10 process in Bulgaria –publications, research projects and
studies, sector - specific laws, documents, strategies, programs
and plans related to sustainable development on the national,
regional, and local levels.
In the context of the global problems sustainable
development is facing specific challenges in Bulgaria. Among them
are the gaps in the national legislation with a bearing to
sustainable development;lack of comprehensive institutional
regulation of the process of sustainable development and of a
steadfast policy in this direction;the coordination of the overall
process of sustainable development and synchronization of the
policies, programs and projects in various spheres have been
inadequate. The following characteristics of the process of
Sustainable Development could be identified:
- The National Plan for Regional Development (NPRD)is
becoming the basic instrument for the creation of a comprehensive
long - term regional development policy based on a balance of
national, regional, and local interests and priorities.
- The sustainable development concept is gaining
increasing recognition, not only on the part of the political
constituency and public administration, but also among members of
the academic community and representatives of non - governmental
organizations and business.
- Several hundred Sustainable Development related
projects have already been implemented in the country at the
national, regional and local levels, and involvement of civil
society has been growing.
3. Regulatory Framework and Policy
Improvement:Regulatory and Administrative Costs
Survey This project was commissioned by Council of Ministers and
was aimed at evaluating the impact of the state requirements,
procedures and institutional arrangements of private firms. The
target groups of the survey were owners, managers and chief
executive officers of companies. The information collected made it
possible to draw conclusions about the main problems faced by the
business sector in Bulgaria (including certification of goods and
services, obtaining of licenses, inspections, etc. ).
Regulatory Constraints to
Bulgarian Business
4. Coping Mechanisms of Elderly Pensioners
in Bulgaria
The survey on the Bulgarian Elderly Pensioner
Program was carried out by Vitosha Research in cooperation with the
American Red Cross and the Bulgarian Red Cross. The results of both
the quantitative and the qualitative surveys (the latter was
carried out in six regions –Pazardjik, Lovech, Dobrich, Stara
Zagora and Shoumen –through focus groups discussions and in - depth
interviews)delineated the basic problems and needs of pensioners
over 65 with low personal income. Public officials, local NGO
leaders, business persons, journalists and the pensioners
themselves gave their opinion and recommendations for finding out
the most appropriate and preferred models of assistance.
Regarding the main needs of pensioners, several
types of models of assistance were pointed out as more
appropriate:
- For satisfying the pensioners ’needs for more and
better food, forms of assistance such as pensioners ’store, social
patronage, and delivery of food supplies are more or less
positively evaluated.
- The preferred models with respect to pensioners
’needs for better health care services and supply of necessary
medicine are:rehabilitation centers, health rooms, free medicines
and provision of free medical services at home, and special medical
care for disabled people and people suffering from chronic
diseases.
- The preferred models of assistance in relation to
pensioners ’limited financial capacity for satisfying their daily
wants:delivery of certain amount of money or partial coverage of
pensioners ’bills for electricity, heating, and water, as well as
the provision of cheaper services for household repairs and
maintenance. The social assistance benefits, provided by the social
assistance services are considered insufficient by the
pensioners.
- As a whole, the preferred model for responding to
pensioners ’cultural and information needs is the con - ducting of
various organized cultural events such as:attendance at theater
plays and movies, celebration of various holidays, organizations of
lectures and discussions, which create the opportunity for the
maintenance and widening of pensioners ’social contacts and the
realization of more interaction.
5. Human Security in the Countries of the
Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
As a part of the UNDP Human Security project in the
Caucasus Region, a set of qualitative social studies were
undertaken in the region of South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Georgia). The study was commissioned by the UNDP Regional Bureau in
Bratislava and aimed at gauging public attitudes towards terrorism
in general and its specific manifestations after September 11. It
also assessed the evolution of specific threats against human
security in the post 9/11 environment. Qualitative research methods
(focus - group discussions and in - depth interviews)were used to
evaluate the basic elements of human security (economic security,
food security, health security, environmental security, personal
and public, and political security)in the three countries.
The study showed that for all the countries in the
Caucasus region human security problems have a clear economic
background, and produce serious anxiety about the future of
national identity and statehood in general. In all three countries
the level of political security and public trust in institutions is
low. This has been one of the important effects of both the high
level of confrontation and tension in the region, and the
ineffective policies adopted by the state and the political
elites.
6. Early Warning System in
Bulgaria
The project coordinated by UNDP includes monthly
publications of Early Warning Reports (EWR). The main objective of
the reports, which have been published since 1997, is to explore
the dynamics of the overall economic, social, political, religious
and ethnic environment in Bulgaria, to anticipate and respond to
crisis situation before they become too violent or before their
effects became irreversible. Early Warning Reports provide
information and early warning signals for possible adverse effects.
Work on this project is based on the cooperation of analysts in the
Development of International Relations Association, BBSS and Club
Ekonomika 2000. CSD is responsible for four of the seven sections
of the report. In 2002 two Early Warning Reports were
published.
7. Social Evaluation of the “Integrated
Development of the Pernik Region ” Micro - Projects
In order to evaluate the social impact of the Pernik
Pilot Project, which constitutes a part of the Employment Project
in the regions with steel - producing and mining industries a
combination of quantitative and qualitative methods were used.
On the basis of the assessment it was concluded that
the micro - projects had been well accepted by citizens of the
Pernik Region. Providing objective economic, technical,
organizational and social evaluations of the completed projects is
considered necessary as it contributes to the design and
implementation of similar projects in the future.
8. International Crime Victimization
Survey
International Crime Victimization Survey,
commissioned by Open Society Foundation, was conducted by Vitosha
Research, using a methodology, developed by United Nations
International Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI). The
main goal of the survey was to collect information from the victims
about the different crimes, their frequency and the assistance
rendered by the police, NGOs, etc.
II. Corruption Surveys
1. Corruption Monitoring System of
Coalition 2000
Vitosha Research has been extensively involved in
conducting the surveys of the Corruption Monitoring System (CMS)of
Coalition 2000 . CMS includes a comprehensive set of
qualitative and quantitative techniques for different target groups
(general public, business people, public officials, professionals,
etc. ). In 2002 two quantitative surveys of general public, two
surveys of the business sector and one survey with public officials
were conducted. This made it possible to estimate the dynamics of
the level of corruption in the country and analyze the corruption
related attitudes.
CMS results were summarized in the Corruption
Indexes of Coalition 2000 and published three times in 2002
(February, June and November).
Spread of Corruption in the
Judiciary (general public;%)
2. Regional Corruption
Monitoring
The second round of Regional Corruption Monitoring
System was based on the methodology of the Corruption Monitoring
System of Coalition 2000 . The main goal of the analysis is
to demonstrate the relative public importance of corruption and the
level of proliferation of corrupt practices in various social
structures, institutions and groups. The information gathered
allows for comparisons between individual countries and makes it
possible to track the evolution of corrupt behavior.
The Spread of Corruption index summarizes
assessments of the spread of corrupt practices among public sector
employees. The evolution of the index values displays several
notable characteristics. In general, its values in all of the
countries surveyed are the highest compared to the other corruption
indexes, which is a tendency carrying on from 2001. In comparative
terms, the most notable changes have been registered for Macedonia,
where assessments of the spread of corruption have sharply
increased. At the same time in Serbia, Croatia and Romania there
has been a noticeable change in a favorable direc - tion. In
Bulgaria the assessments of the spread of corruption remained
almost unchanged.
Spread of Corruption*:Bulgaria
1998-2002,Southeast Europe,
January 2002 (general public;%)
3. Corruption in Small and Mediumsized
Enterprises
In cooperation with Integra, Slovakia, Vitosha
Research completed a project on Corruption in Small and Medium -
sized Enterprises. The survey was conducted among entrepreneurs and
managers of 642 small and medium - sized companies.
The majority of business people recognized many
forms of abuse of power, which they identify as corruption in
addition to some traditional forms as giving bribes in different
forms. SME managers consider the lack of administrative control and
the disfunctionality of the judiciary among the most important
factors facilitating the spread of corruption in the country.
According to the participants in the survey, the most efficient
strategies to curb corruption include, on the one hand, timely and
well - ordered government measures and legal regulations, and on
the other hand, the development of alternative anticorruption
agencies/actors, e. g. as civil society anticorruption
organizations, wide media publicity, etc.
III. IT Projects Vitosha Research has continued to
monitor the IT penetration and information society development in
Bulgaria. Special attention has been devoted to PCs and Internet
usage and their role in the everyday life of Bulgarians. In 2002
several projects were carried out and the data collected made it
possible to produce regular assessments of the current status of
ICTs.
1. Monitoring of Information Technologies
in Bulgaria
Vitosha Research has been monitoring the penetration
of new information technologies in Bulgarians’everyday life since
2000. The purpose is to systematically assess the use of PCs and
the Internet by Bulgarian citizens. Three main indicators have been
monitored: computer access, Internet use and structure of Internet
se. The main findings include:
- Although the relative share of people with PC
access has increased, the level of IT penetration in Bulgarians’
everyday life can be evaluated as relatively low. As of October
2002 the approximate number of PC users aged 18 and above are about
1, 050, 000 (16. 3%of the adult population).
- The people with higher education constitute the
largest group among those having computer access. The highest level
of PC usage is observed among the 18 - 40 age group.
- Although Internet use has generally been on the
rise the share of users among the Bulgarian population remains
relatively low.
- The typical Internet users visit the virtual space
at least once a week.
- The three main purposes for Internet users to
access the World Wide Web are the following:as a source of
information, for entertainment, and for business and education. At
the same time services like financial transactions and online
shopping are still rarely used.
2. On-line Survey on the Internet
Use
Vitosha Research and Bulgaria Online developed a
pilot project for an Internet survey. The basic methodological
purpose of the survey was to test different options and techniques
for conducting online studies via Internet. The pilotproject target
group covers the registered users of the News and Media information
data - base of Bulgaria Online.
The specific goals of the project are:
- Assessment of the general Internet habits of the
users;
- Identification of the main problems related to
Internet usage;
- Positioning of Internet among the contemporary
forms of communication;
- Description of the Internet users’ profile;
- Probing the Internet users ’attitudes towards
participation in future surveys conducted via Internet.
Survey results show some essential problems that
inhibit the level of Internet se in Bulgaria:the necessity to
achieve better value - for - money services in terms of connection
speed and connection reliability, the need to improve security and
e - mail protection. More than half of the respondents think spam e
- mail should be reduced through enforcement of new
regulations.
FREQUENCY OF INTERNET USE (%)
|
April
2000
|
September
2000
|
June
2001
|
October
2001
|
May
2002
|
October
2002
|
Several times a day |
0.4
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.9
|
At least once a day |
1.0
|
1.4
|
2.5
|
1.8
|
1.4
|
2.5
|
At least once a week |
2.2
|
1.6
|
3.2
|
3.8
|
3,8
|
2.9
|
At least once a month |
0.9
|
0.8
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
0.8
|
1.2
|
Less often |
1.0
|
2.1
|
0.7
|
2.3
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
Total |
5.5
|
6.8
|
8.3
|
10.4
|
8.9
|
10.0
|
Source: Vitosha Research Quarterly Omnibus (2000
- 2002)
IV. Public Opinion, Media and Market
Research
Ten public opinion research projects were
implemented in 2001. The basic topics of the studies were:public
opinion about politics and economy, attitudes towards the European
Union, NATO and US policy against terrorism, the health reform in
Bulgaria, etc. The projects were commissioned by the Office of
Research, US Department of State, Gallup Hungary, the Democracy
Network Program, the National Health Insurance Fund, Barents Group
of KPMG Consulting, and the International Institute for Democracy
and Electoral Assistance .
1. Eurobarometer
Vitosha Research, as a part of a consortium of
research institutions from Central and Eastern Europe, has
continued the implementation of the Eurobarometer survey. The
survey is launched by the European Commission in 13 EU candidate
countries and is coordinated by Gallup Hungary. Gathering
information about societies that will become members of the
European Union, the Commission is able to provide decision makers
and the European public with opinion data that help understand
similarities and differences between the EU and the candidate
countries. The Eurobarometer continuously tracks the support for EU
membership and the change of attitudes related to European issues
in the candidate countries. In 2002 three surveys were carried out.
The project aims at monitoring general attitudes towards the EU
membership, public expectations of changes of living standards, and
assessments of the process of European integration of Bulgaria.
More than 6 people out of 10 in the candidate
countries (61 %)consider their country ’s membership of the EU as a
“good thing ”(2 percentage points more than last year). Across all
13 candidate countries the level of support observed has not risen
significantly. However, opposition has fallen compared to the
Spring 2002 survey. These favorable results are even more striking
in the 10 countries which in December 2002 were invited to become
EU members, where the number of people who are against their
country ’s membership records a drop of about 20 percentage points
within one year. The latest wave of the Eurobarometer showed that
the highest level of support for EU membership has been registered
in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Turkey.
Source:Candidate Countries Eurobarometer
2002.2,Public Opinion in the 13 Candidate
Countries for European Union Membership,First Results,November
2002,European Commission
The Eurobarometer
Website:http://europa.eu.int/comm/public_opinion
CC13 -Candidate countries as a whole
LAEKEN 10 –“Laeken group ”includes 10 countries which were invited
in December 2002 to
join the EU by 2004 (Cyprus,Czech
Republic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Malta,
Poland,Slovakia and Slovenia)
Question:Generally speaking,do you think that (COUNTRY)’s
membership of the European
Union would be...?
(%“Don ’t know ”and “No answer ”not shown)
2. Public Opinion on Administrative
Services in Bulgaria
The project, commissioned by KPMG, aimed to gauge
citizens ’satisfaction with administrative services in Bulgaria,
and to obtain assessments and recommendations on the current
administrative system in the country.
The survey results show that positive assessments
prevail for the administra - tive services provided to citizens and
companies. The share of unsatisfied clients exceeds that of
satisfied clients in services related to:1)police (e. g. in case of
theft, complaints, check - ups, etc. );2) housing problems,
applications for building permissions and job search services and
3)provision of unemployment benefits by Labor Offices. Along with
many objective reasons for not receiving administrative services
that citizens and firms are entitled to (such as the high cost of
the services, too much bureaucracy, lack of financial resources
from the budget, delay of payments, unclear requirements, etc. )the
negligence and unconcerned attitude of the public officials towards
the clients and towards their own administrative duties was
highlighted as a very important subjective reason. The main
recommendation for the improvement of service delivery at the
local, regional and national level is to impose stricter control
and penalties for malperformance of officials.
Citizens ’Satisfaction with
Administrative Services (%)*
(*) Base - the respondents who
have received the respective administrative service
3. Media Research
Media studies focused on the evaluation of Radio
Free Europe, Deutsche Welle, BBC and Voice of America program -
ming. A total of one quantitative, two qualitative studies, two
radio monito - ring projects, one assessment of radio
advertisements and three waves of assessment of music fragments
were conducted. Most of these projects were commissioned by the
InterMedia Survey Institute and Radio Vitosha – Bulgaria and aimed
at assessing:
- Trust of the Bulgarian public in mass media;
- Attitudes towards international and domestic TV,
and radio channels;
- Role, image and relevance of international and
domestic radio broadcasters in Bulgaria;
- Opinions and attitudes of Bulgarian listeners
towards the programs of the RFE, DW, BBC and VOA.
4. Market Research
Vitosha Research also conducted eight quantitative
market surveys in 2002.
The main topics of the studies were:
- Pharmaceutical market segmentation;
- Alcoholic drink consumption and brand
tracking;
- Use and attitudes towards the consumption of goods
at OMV petrol stations.
V. Publications Research findings have been
widely disseminated in the press. More than 20 articles and survey
analyses were published in newspapers with national circulation.
About 40 analytical reports and policy papers were prepared by
Vitosha Research experts. Some of the more important reports
are:
- Assessment of the Progress Made by Bulgaria towards
Sustainable Development in the Context of the RIO+10 Process,
January 2002.
- Developing Philanthropy in Bulgaria: Strategic and
Sustainable Partnership with NGOs, January 2002.
- E - readiness assessment of Bulgaria, January
2002.
- Corruption Indexes, Regional Corruption Monitoring
in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia,
Romania, and Yugoslavia, April 2002.
- Social Evaluation of the Microprojects Fulfilled
under the “Integrated Development of the Pernik Region ”Project,
February 2002.
- •Conflict V lnerability Assessment, April 2002
- Regulatory Framework and Policy
Improvements:Regulatory and Administrative Costs survey, April
2002.
- Human Security in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia
Following the Events of 11 September 2001, April 2002
- Bulgarian Elderly Pensioner Program Survey, May
2002
- Public opinion on the economic and social policy of
the Bulgarian government, June 2002.
- Public opinion on administrative services delivery,
June 2002
- Corruption in Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises,
August 2002
- Corruption Indexes of Coalition 2000 -
November 2002.
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