Lunchtime Lecture, UK Embassy Sofia, 11 November 2002
Gisela Stuart MP
1. I was asked to talk to you today on what sort of
EU Bulgaria will join in 2007. I must begin by clarifying that I do
not have any crystal ball gazing skills that would allow me to see
into the future. Nor can I make any promises or firm predictions.
What I can do is, on the basis of my own experience as a member of
the Praesidium of the Convention on the Future of Europe, try to
project what might come out of the Convention and the sort of
Europe this might provide in the future. Of course another
reservation I should make is that what comes out of the Convention
also has to be taken forward at the next Intergovernmental
Conference in 2004, and discussed by the heads of state and
government. So we do not have the final say. Nevertheless, I think
I can give you some food for discussion, which is what I was asked
to do.
2. The first important assertion to make is that the
EU in 2007 will be very much a Union of nation states. I think
there is a clear understanding in the minds of most Convention
members that the state is the fundamental building block of the EU;
that national identities are not in danger of being watered down or
replaced and that for any further integration to be successful in
the future, what we already have must be much more firmly embedded
in the national democratic systems of the member states.
3. This is something that I personally believe in
very strongly. Recently, one of my roles at the Convention has been
to chair the working group on the role of national parliaments in
the EU. My main objective has been to find mechanisms and
procedures that would help tie our national democratic legislatures
firmly into the processes of European decision making, without
making them co-legislators.
4. Some members of the Convention are nervous that
the sort of recommendations that my group has made will lead to a
much more intergovernmental Europe. I will not go into these
recommendations in detail, however can do so during questions if
you wish. I reject these criticisms of creating a more
intergovernmental Europe. I believe that strengthening the role of
national parliaments, and thus enhancing the direct link to the
citizens and complementing the role of the European Parliament,
will give us a much stronger basis for taking Europe further, but
in a more democratically accountable manner.
5. As I noted in my speech yesterday, many of the
recommendations made by this group are aimed at solving the
problems of the current system and encouraging better practices at
the national level. By experiencing the very demanding accession
process, your parliament is already more than aware of the degree
to which national politics is affected by European policy and that
domestic policy is actually rather 'European'. In the country I
represent, this division between domestic and European is still
very firm in peoples minds, which does not help them or the
citizens engage with Europe in a positive way. By 2007, any
teething problems experience by the first wave enlargement
candidates will have been solved, and your parliaments, never
having settled into the 'bad old way' of doing things, will be able
to start from a clean slate and build on the experience of others
to enter the game as active and constructive players at the
European level.
6. Institutionally, I think that the EU of 2007 will
look considerably different from the EU we have today. I believe we
will have a constitutional treaty, which will probably give the EU
a legal personality. It will very likely be an integrated treaty,
without the current pillar structure. Instead there will be a
streamlined, more clearly defined set of legislative procedures and
legal instruments, which themselves will clearly divide
intergovernmental policies from community policies.
7. The catchword for much of the Convention is
'simplification'. This cannot of course come at the expense of
efficiency and democracy, but there is nevertheless huge scope for
simplifying what we have at the moment. I do not believe there will
be any new legislative bodies. Another very clear desire of the
Convention members is to avoid setting up new institutions.
8. There are other issues still to be decided at the
Convention, which I cannot make predictions on and there are many
institutional questions that will be discussed in the New Year. For
example the number of Commissioners each member state will have.
Would the bigger states give up a Commissioner? Would the smaller
states be happy with a rotating system, which would mean that
sometimes they have one and sometimes they do not? These
discussions have still to take place, and I am sure they will be
extremely lively ones.
9. The distribution of votes in the Council of
Ministers has been set for the first wave of enlargement, and with
a population the size of Bulgaria's, if it were to join in 2007,
Bulgaria would fall in to the category of a Sweden or an Austria,
which will have 10 votes each from January 2005, according to the
Presidency Conclusions from the Brussels summit at the end of
October.
10. Personally I would like to see considerable
reform of the European Council, with an elected President to
replace the current rotating system, which I believe undermines
efficiency, as there is no follow-up on priorities that are reset
every six months by a different country. If, by producing a
constitutional treaty, we are hoping to settle constitutional
debates within the EU for at least 20-30 years, to provide a more
stable existence, then the entity we create has to give itself a
more strategic vision for the future. I believe a President of the
Council would be able to do this.
11. In the sphere of economics, I would expect a
more integrated EU in 2007. The European Commission should be
strengthened in order to have the authority to ensure the
completion of the Single Market. So far only about 80% of this has
been achieved. By 2007, an EU of very likely 25 member states will
have been functioning for between 2 and 3 years, with almost half a
billion people. By adding over 100 million consumers to the Single
Market, the medium to long term gains will I believe outweigh the
costs for all of us. I also hope that by 2007 we will have gone
some way to improving the situation for many countries, members and
candidates, that are experiencing extremely high unemployment
rates. And I do believe that enlarging and consolidating the Single
Market will help to address this.
12. I congratulate you in meeting the Copenhagen
criteria of a 'functioning market economy' this year for the first
time, which proves the extra progress made over the last year on
macroeconomic performance, structural and financial sector reforms.
Again in Copenhagen in a few weeks time, at the next European
Council, it is likely that an updated roadmap and enhanced
pre-accession strategy for Bulgaria will be one of the issues on
the agenda. These will provide useful benchmarks, to help you to
continue with the extraordinary progress you have already made and
achieve those outstanding objectives. Provisionally closing 22
Chapters in such a short space of time is a clear indication of the
political will and effort being invested in your accession to the
EU.
13. Then there is also the Euro - by 2007 will the
UK be in the Eurozone? Well this is certainly an area I do not
intend to cast predictions on. However it is clear that many of the
candidate states are keen to join the Eurozone as soon as possible
after accession. For many, meeting the Maastricht convergence
criteria will take some time. However in 2007, for some, after 2-3
years inside the EU, membership of the Eurozone may already be on
the horizon.
14. The final area I would like to mention is that
of external relations and defence. Clearly this is a crucial area
of the EU's development in the current climate of international
affairs. The EU is continuing with its objective of creating a
European Security and Defence Policy and by 2007 I would hope that
enough political will and the matching financial commitments have
been found to ensure that the Rapid Reaction Force becomes a
reality, and an effective one, not just on paper. Building these
capabilities are fundamental to carrying out the Petersberg tasks
effectively.
15. The parallel issue here is of course NATO. By
2007, Bulgarian membership of NATO is likely - and I wish you well
at the Prague Summit in a few days time. NATO is set to reform
itself to cope with the new challenges and threats and the new
geopolitical setting. The EU must ensure that it can develop with
NATO and that the two dovetail and complement each other.
16. In the run up to 2007, Bulgaria may well find
itself as a non-EU NATO member, as Poland, the Czech Republic,
Hungary and Turkey are at the moment, amongst others. As stated in
the Annex to the Brussels Presidency Conclusions, there will be
full consultation of the non-EU European Allies on the full range
of security, defence and crisis management issues. I believe this
is a crucial part not only of maintaining a working relationship
between the EU and NATO, but also of preparing Bulgaria for EU
membership.
17. When Bulgaria joins the EU, whenever this takes
place, and we do support your efforts to achieve the goal in 2007,
it will be in a very important position, geopolitically speaking.
By 2007 Turkey will not be an EU member. Whether it will have
opened accession negotiations remains to be seen - there are very
varying opinions on this currently. But whatever the status of
Turkey, when Bulgaria joins it will become an external EU border
country and therefore crucial in the maintenance of some form of
neighbourhood policy to those countries it borders that are not in
the EU.
18. In his provisional draft constitutional treaty,
Giscard d'Estaing has included under Title IX a section on 'The
Union and its immediate environment', which he suggests could
contain provisions defining 'a privileged relationship between the
Union and its neighbouring States, in the event of a decision on
the creation of such a relationship'.
19. Neighbourhood policy is an effective means of
ensuring we do not end up with a 'Fortress Europe'. As a member
state, Germany has been playing the role of a 'bridge' to its
non-EU neighbours very successfully over the last 10 years, and
Poland is actively positioning itself to become an important
regional player in encouraging its western neighbours to develop
policies towards countries such as the Ukraine and Belarus,
policies that will ultimately ensure regional stability. Through
its involvement in the 'Weimar Triangle' with France and Germany,
Poland has already acted as an interlocutor with Ukraine on behalf
of all three countries. Bulgaria could be well suited to playing
such a role in the future as a regional 'power' whose goal it is to
take the lead in stabilising the regional environment, not only
towards Turkey but also to the rest of south-eastern Europe and the
Balkans.
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