The centralized administrative system divorced the
interest and credit policies from the real economic processes. The
economic processes were both budgeted and credited with the
proportions of the two centrally determined. In these circumstances
and with the distorted cost and prices structure the interest rate
did not count much as factor in the distribution of resources and
the production growth speed. All monetary-credit and financial
regulators systematically misinterpreted, the same true for the
credit and interest proper the credit investments turned out
inconsistent with the economic framework. This holds good both for
the short term turnover capital investments and for the long term
investment loans by the end of 1990. The overall credit investment
in the material production sphere for the years 1981 to 1989
outstripped by 4.2 points the increase of the national income and
by 3.2 points the increase of the domestic product as well.
For the whole period of totalitarianism and
centralized planning the bank had been authorized to exercise the
direct and administrative in its character control over all the
financing of capital investments and turnover funds no matter where
they came from - the enterprises own assets or borrowed such. With
the overall state ownership domineering the concepts of assets and
liabilities of economic entities used to be conventional only.
The turnover capital credits covered the constant
indispensable needs of the enterprises. What is meant is the
minimum capital amounts every normal economic entity in the market
world needs to command to be able to work. The credits were thus
invited to enter by means of the so called loan for stock share,
also called credit to the normative at the end of 1990. The
enterprises originally (years 50 -60s) used to need small amounts
of turnover capital, purposefully lowered to allow the bank credit
to enter into the capital turnover on a regular basis and thus
ensure the everyday control. More recently (years 1985 - 1989) the
same tendency was sustained among other things because the
enterprises did not have enough assets - the result from the high
revenue centralization norm in the budget. By the end of year 1990
with most industrial enterprises some 70 - 75 per cent of the
minimum necessary turnover capital was provided by the so called
stock-share loans. At that the enterprises were treated selectively
by the bank and the attempts to use interest as credit supply and
demand regulator were doomed to fail.
The normative loans increase is an annual average of
4.5 per cent for the years 1986 - 1989. Of the total 22,122 mln
leva turnover capital loans by the end of year 1990 17,292 mln were
of the normative and buying out kinds. In most cases these were
loans to substitute for the insecured turnover assets of the
enterprise necessary for its normal financial stability. The
bank-enterprises credit relationships shifted on to commercial
basis in early 1991 most enterprises had to meet the difficult
conditions of paying market interests. The 1989 average interest
rate for turnover capital credits was 5.38 per cent; 45 per cent
was introduced in 1991 to become 52 per cent by the end of the
year.
The investment loan obligations of the enterprises
have been the product of the centralized planning system in their
best part. The natural balances and relations allotted significant
role, the systematically misinterpreted financial aspects of the
investment policies and the high revenue centralization norm all
prevented the enterprises from accruing their own assets. The
inefficient production and the distorted prices also had their
effect. The real investment returns were clear neither to the
investors nor to the banks who had ratified the credit. The center
setting limits on the capital investment allocations did not
usually care about the available financial resources. There was
only the formal connection between the investment intentions and
the profit as ultimate source for servicing the credits and so it
did not make a regulator criterion.
During years 1990 and 1991 worth special attention
is another peculiarity determining the nature of the so called
foreign currency credits of the enterprises which were owed at the
time when the economic reform all started.
The communist system, even in its most pretentious
periods did not give the directors of enterprises any rights to
deal on their own with issues to do with the investment, crediting
and hard currency areas in particular. The foreign currency credits
were being accumulated during the years 1983 to 1987 when the
center and the 'holding' organizations, the so called economic
groupings decided everything.
On their closing in 1990 and 1991 these groupings
(called companies by Decree #56) issued a document each to allocate
in a haste the credit obligations among the enterprises. There are
quite a few cases when enterprises were allocated foreign currency
debts who had previously paid the groupings back in leva and had
virtually serviced them.
Actually it is hard to explain what in reality has
happened to the lev equivalent of the 10-billion foreign currency
debt of the country. It was at the same time that the enterprises
were transferring all their profits to their centralized 'holding'
organizations (firms, groupings). Normally this money should have
gone to service the credits, but the economic groupings have never
been held responsible for that on their closing. The closing itself
was enacted without any financial analysis. The long-term financial
assets which were being distributed among the enterprises are in
the same condition. The holdings were generous to spend hundreds of
thousands of leva during years 1989 - 1990 - 1991 to establish all
sorts of joint-stock companies (especially such abroad and banks in
the country). And in the long run the enterprises were the ones to
pay 55 - 60 per cent interest rates on credits that had been
previously allocated to them.
Hundreds of thousands of leva were being stripped
from the enterprises during the years 1987 - 1991 to build up the
assets of commercial banks. It is already known where the
enterprises invested financially - an Ordinance granted their
shares to the Bank Consolidation Company.
The above considerations leave us with the
impression that the best part of the indebtedness of the
enterprises had been built up under the effects of factors external
to their actual work. These conditions should have necessitated
certain changes in the credit and interest policies to foster the
transition to the market economy by positively adding some measures
which were not undertaken anyway.
At the outset in January 1991 the base interest rate
was declared at the level of 15 per cent, but not a few days later
(February 7th) it was increased to 45 per cent to go up to 54 per
cent by the end of the year. The enterprises were suffering this
interest burden. Those who could rely on the guaranteed demand for
their products transferred the expenses onto their prices and so
enhanced the inflationary tendencies. The aggregate cash flow and
the credit obligation allocation was further distorted by the
requirement introduced at the same time the interests paid by the
enterprises not to be considered profit tax deductible. During the
whole of years 1991 and 1992 hardly any efforts were put in the
coordination of the interest, credit and fiscal policies.
In the monetary field the activities of the BNB and
the government did not go any further than maneuvering with the
base interest rate. The overall effect was the financial
instability of the enterprises with ever growing significant
turnover indebtedness, no performing prospects and spending on
paying wages and repaying the state.
The mutual indebtedness of the economic entities
became so considerable that it made a prerequisite in the programs
of all foreign consultants and was put forward as problem number
one.
The serious assessment of the situation at the end
of 1990 (had it been made) should have demonstrated that the
considerable credit indebtedness of the enterprises is not loans
proper indeed, but centrally allocated quasi-credits. And these
quasi-credits should have been cleared of using the most
appropriate method under the circumstances before moving on to
commercial relationships between enterprises and banks. Advice had
been given along these lines by the World Bank consultants, but it
was mostly disregarded or actually led to partial and inconsistent
measures to be sporadically taken in years 1991 and 1992.
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