I. NATO Transformation

As part of its series of annual security events, the Center for the Study of Democracy held the international conference "NATO Transformation - Facing New Security Frontiers" on 28-29 April, 2006. It was a follow-up to the 2006 NATO ministerial meeting hosted by the government of Bulgaria. The conference contributed to the broader debate on NATO’s transformation and helped outline bold new policies, overcoming legacy relationships and trans-atlantic divides. The discussion focused on the future partnerships in managing common security challenges and longer-term political strategies for the Balkans and the wider Black Sea area. The conference was attended by NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Permanent Representatives, high-level representatives of the Alliance, EU, Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Albania, Croatia, the Republic of Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Members of Parliaments, policy analysts, representatives of the media. One of the main topics of the conference, addressed in one way or another by all
participants, was the effort to work out a common definition of the new security frontiers. Two main aspects of this effort
were focused on - geographical and functional. From the point of view of geography, the importance of the different NATO partnerships was emp-hasized. Enhancing the partnership approach should not come at the expense of increased bureaucracy but should rather focus on bringing added value and flexibility. Ties to new partners should not diminish the importance of the
existing partnerships, nor should they encapsulate the partnerships into a group of like-minded states and societies.
From the point of view of the functional dimensions of security, it is obvious that the security frontiers have been moved
as well. A political transformation is accompanying military transformation in NATO in response to shifts from one type of threat—a massive invasion—to a variety of asymmetric risks and threats coming from different sources and directions and interacting in often unpredictable ways.

From left to right:Mr. Ivailo Kalfin, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria, Dr. Oginan Shentov,
Chairman CSD, Ambassador Boyko Noev, Amb. Adam Kobieracki Assistant Secretary General,
Operations, NATO, Robert McFarlane, Former National Security Advisor, US

One much discussed new challenge to international stability was energy security. The importance of international cooperation to protect critical energy infrastructure was highlighted during the conference. The global energy systems are vulnerable and disruption of critical infrastructure could have a variety of political, social and military implications.
Energy security was also the topic of a round table organized by CSD on 11 May 2006 with guest speaker was Mr. Philip
Stephens, associate editor of the Financial Times and senior commentator at the newspaper. Several aspects are key to a sustainable energy policy today – efficiency, liberalization of the energy market and cooperation; the larger EU perspective is towards a better coordination between economic, foreign and energy policy.
Energy policy is central to Bulgaria economically, politically and strategically and consequently there is a need for an active public debate. Among the issues discussed was Bulgaria’s dependency on Russia regarding oil and gas supply. The future of the Belene nuclear power station at the Danube River was discussed as a possible solution for the future. In the UK, the increased use of renewable sources and efficiency in consumption are among the main objectives in this area. Several possible scenarios of the energy policy development were discussed. A pessimistic view is that Russia sees its energy as a means to geopolitics - relations with Ukraine and Georgia illustrate Russia’s capacity to divide. However, the positive view is that Russia needs and is
willing to sell its gas and oil, and its pipelines are heading West. Europe should thus respond in several ways but should avoid the ”divide and rule” strategy. First of all, it should express solidarity, i.e. the deals must be done with a view to fitting in transmission systems, serving a number of countries. Second, Europe should aim at a transparent and liberal market. Third, it should be considering the development of an alternative pipelines not based on a single European system.

UK Ambassador Jeremy Hill (left) and Mr. Philip Stephens

NATO’s nuclear policy and nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was discussed on 11 April 2006 at a round table discussion. The event provided more information and clarity regarding NATO’s WMD policy. The main speaker was Mr. Guy Roberts, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for WMD Policy and Director of the Nuclear Policy Directorate.
Participants in the round table were members of the Bulgarian Parliament, staff officers and representatives of the media.
The export control of dual-use items and arms is also an area in which CSD seeks to facilitate exchange of experience. On
22 - 23 May 2006 the CSD in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
of Bulgaria organized an international seminar on "Export Control of Dual-Use Items and Arms: Industry Outreach".
The seminar was part of the continuing implementation of the Joint Action Plan of Bulgaria and Hungary offering exchange of information, training and assistance to the countries from the Western Balkans – an initiative which started two years ago.


II. Policy Analyses

In 2006, CSD continued its work in the field of crime prevention with two areas of focus – analyzing crime trends and police stop-and-search practices. In May, for a second year, the Center published a comprehensive analysis of crime trends in Bulgaria. CSD’s study covered the period 2000-2005 and presented information about Bulgaria’s crime rate from an alternative source - victimization surveys - and made a systematic comparison of the crime level according to victim-reported crime and police crime data. Unlike official crime statistics collected by the ministries of interior and justice, the regular crime
victimization surveys help the police and government authorities, as well as the public to understand:
• whether the official police crime data reflect the real crime rate and crime trends;
• the volume of the unreported crime;
• the reasons victims do not report crimes to the police.

The seminar was attended by participants from five neighbouring countries in South-Eastern Europe
- Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Republic of Macedonia and Serbia and Montenegro

The study also compared the crime situation in Bulgaria to crime in a number of European countries. The findings of three national crime victims surveys, referred to throughout this report as National Crime Surveys (NCS), offer an opportunity to assess street crime in Bulgaria in the period 2000– 2005.

From left to right: Chief Commissioner Valentin Petrov, Director of the National Police Service,
Mr. Boyko Kotsev, Deputy Minister of Interior, Amb. Jeremy Hill, Embassy of the UK in Bulgaria,
Mr. Rumen Petkov, Minister of Interior of Bulgaria, Dr. Ognian Shentov, Chairman, CSD

The study was released at the public session of the National Crime Prevention Council held on 3 May 2006. At the meeting, the CSD analysis was discussed alongside the police report on Dynamics of Recorded Crime and Crime Counteraction Measures of the National Police Service in the Period 2004 – 2005. In 2006, CSD published an analytical report Police Stops and Ethnic Profiling in Bulgaria examining the use of stops by the Bulgarian police, focusing on the practices of disproportionate stops of members of the Roma ethnic minority. The report also highlighted issues related to police abuse during stops as well as
crime among Roma communities.

The study was part of a Europe-wide initiative, carried out jointly with the Open Society Justice Initiative, to map discriminatory police practices across Europe. In addition to Bulgaria, research was carried out in Spain, Hungary and Russia indicating that there is diszproportionate treatment of minorities by the police in all these countries. CSD’s European Program was a major
contributor to the study The Rifle Has the Devil Inside: Gun Culture in South Eastern Europe published in 2006 by South
Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SEESAC). The report examines how cultural beliefs and practices influence gun ownership and use in SEE, and how these might affect small arms control
interventions. An anthropological approach was taken to better understand the reasons for civilian gun ownership and use, and the ways in which society represents these behaviours, in Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia and Montenegro (including UN Administered Kosovo). A wide variety of research tools were used including household surveys conducted by SEESAC and UNDP, focus group transcripts, secondary literature searches, statistical data, anthropological field studies, the internet, print and electronic media.