Vitosha Research / Sociological Program

2004 Highlights In 2004 Vitosha Research conducted 50 social, economic, marketing and media surveys. Quantitative and qualitative methods were used to conduct 24,700 personal standardized and semi-standardized interviews, 50 in-depth interviews and 18 focus group discussions. The results of the conducted surveys were summarized in over 20 analytical reports. In 2004 a considerable part of the work of Vitosha Research was related to corruption, the hidden economy, crime, security, as well as to social projects and assessments, marketing and business studies. The periodic surveys on corruption, part of the Corruption Monitoring System of Coalition 2000, were developed by Vitosha Research and applied during the 1998-2004 period. In addition corruption-related surveys were carried out among specific groups of respondents – such as Tax Administration employees and Ministry of Interior officers. In continuation of an international project studying informal networks in Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, launched in 2003, Vitosha Research produced a report analyzing such networks in Bulgaria and prepared a study of the Bulgarian elites. Vitosha Research surveys also examined the issues of crime as well as small arms and light weapons (SALW). In July, a study focused on the perceptions of Bulgarians towards the possession, use, trade, and control of SALW was conducted. A national representative crime victimization survey was carried out in November. One of the priority research targets in 2004 was the social and economic issues. A significant part of the studies and activities of Vitosha Research were related to the assessment of social projects, training in the field of social assessment, national and regional socio-economic assessments andsurveys.

I. Social and Economic Surveys

A significant part of the work of Vitosha Research in 2004 comprised social and economic surveys. Some of the main project theme areas included:
• study of the investment climate and administrative costs in Bulgaria,
• survey of the business sector on problems related to present regulatory regimes,
• study of the innovation potential and needs of the Bulgarian industry,
• study of the financial industry.
The social surveys were focused on:
• the labor market and the provision of social services in exchange for new jobs,
• social-economic research in regions for prospective development of mining industry projects.

1. Study of the Investment Climate and Administrative Costs
The study of the investment climate and the administrative costs in the country was assigned to Vitosha Research by the World Bank and the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Bulgaria. The purpose of the Vitosha Research project was to examine the posts and restrictions imposed on private business, by laws and administrative regulations and procedures. The survey helped the government understand the difficulties that private businesses in Bulgaria face, and stimulated reforms of burdensome and restrictive policies.
The research contributed to the development of programs and policies, related to the regulation of private business in Bulgaria. The key project outcomes include:
• Analysis of the specific problems of small and medium-sized companies;
• Evaluation of the quality of management and the delivery of public services related to the main procedures and formalities that Bulgarian companies face;
• Ranking of the costs, imposed on companies by administrative and regulatory procedures, and identifying cases of superfluous expenditures that might be reduced through reforms and innovations;
• Setting the basis for a follow-up monitoring and self-assessment by government agencies of the effects of the implemented reforms.

2. Business and Regulatory Regimes

The Ministry of Economy contracted Vitosha Research to conduct a national representative study of businesses in Bulgaria. The main project goals were:

1) To analyze the problems that Bulgarian businesses face, related to licensing, authorization and registration regimes of central and local governments' administrations.

2) To formulate ways and means for improving the work of the institutions responsible for the control on the different regulatory regimes.

Personal standardized interviews were used to survey 538 Bulgarian companies. The survey results pointed to the following conclusions:

• Regardless of the activity and the economic sectors of each of the surveyed companies, they all have encountered problems related to obtaining permits and licenses, regulating their business activities.

• Six main requirements were found to create most difficulties for businesses: sanitation license from the Hygiene and Epidemiology Inspectorate; company registration; building permit; building-usage permit; State Veterinary Control Directorate permits; commercial road-transport permits.

• Businesses indicated that three main difficulties in obtaining any type licenses or permits were: the long wait in obtaining them, the large amount of documents and requirements necessary for obtaining the individual permit/license, and the need of presenting documents that the public servants could easily obtain from other departments •within their administrations.

Business representatives consider that most regimes should be changed because in their present state they create numerous obstacles, are time-consuming and impose additional costs on the companies. The suggested reforms of the regimes were mostly related to facilitating the bureaucratic procedures by reducing and unifying the number of requirements for the issuance of permits and documents. The respondents expressed support for "one stop shop" administrative services that would save companies time and resources.

3. Innovation Potential and Needs of the Bulgarian Industry

The main goal of the project was to analyze the technological potential and innovation necessities of Bulgarian companies. The existing technologies and the need for the introduction of new technologies were assessed. The results were summarized in an ana­lytical report that made a number of recommendations for the improvement of the existing environment for techno­logical development and innovation.

4. The Hidden Economy in Bulgaria.

In 2002 Vitosha Research launched a project on Monitoring the Size and Dynamics of the Hidden Economy in Bulgaria (MHE). The work on this initiative continued in 2004 when Vitosha Research conducted a survey among businesses and two national representative population surveys. The surveys allowed for the indexes of the hidden economy, the main MHE product, to be updated. The indexes represent the dynamics of different aspects of the hidden economy and fall into two categories:

I Unrecorded economic activity: employ­ment and hidden turnover.

II. Barter economy andpart-time (household) farming: employment, incomes and consumption.

The main results of the surveys were summarized in three reports. The most important conclusions of these studies were:

• For a period of two years a stable trend is observed towards an increase of the share of the active population, engaged in contract labor. In turn, there is a significant reduction of the share of people engaged in activities related to part-time farming;

• Following the government's intro­duction in the beginning of 2004 of measures to strengthen the regulation of the labor market, the hidden economy in labor relations was significantly restricted. After the initial reactions to the measures adopted by the government subsided, however, there has been a rebound to some forms of unregistered employment. An increase is seen both in the cases of additional paid work without a contract, as well as in the share of people whose social security payments are made on a lower than their actual salary;

• In only nine months (March-No­vember 2004) the share of employed individuals, whose social security contributions were paid on the basis of an amount that was lower than their actual salary, increased from one fifth to over one third;

• The studies showed that to some respect one observed a return to the prior levels employment fraud in respect to both - not registering work contracts and evasion of social security and health contributions payments. For one in ten employees no social security was paid at all. The share of those for whom no health insurance contributions were paid also grew slightly;

• One of the most noticeable and stable trends in the last two years was the lasting drop in the share of cases in which no receipts or invoices are issued for purchases made or ser­vices used.

 

5. Employment of Social Welfare Recipients Project

The program of the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy, called From Welfare Assistance to Employment (a project that provides individuals with low-paid government jobs that make them eli­gible for social welfare assistance) was initiated and implemented with the support of the United Nations Develop­ment Program. Vitosha Research was asked to conduct a survey that exam­ines the possibility for expanding the government program in four new mu­nicipalities.

A survey was carried out in twelve mu­nicipalities located in six different re­gions. The municipalities were chosen due to their high share of unemployed, handicapped people, senior citizens, unemployed university graduates with degrees in education, medicine, and the humanities. The study was carried out through a combination of quantita­tive and qualitative methods: personal standardized interviews, personal semi-structured interviews and desk research. The main highlights of the project include:

1. Completing a needs assessment for the implementation of the project in each of the twelve municipalities. The focus was on the local significance and currency of the project;

2. An evaluation of existing and neces­sary resources for the implementa­tion of the project;

3. Projecting a forecast of the main threats and opportunities to the project implementation (SWOT analysis);

4. Conducting a comparative analysis of the existing socio-economic data for each municipality.

 

6. Socio-Economic Survey in Krumovgrad

Between July and August 2004 a thorough socio-economic survey was carried out among the population of the Krumovgrad municipality. The surveyed communities fell within the impact area of the planned construction of a mine in a locality known as Ada Tepe. The main purpose of the study was to collect, through interviews and desk-research, exhaustive data on infrastructure, demography, education, unemployment, social services and social programs in the impact area.

 

7. Socio-Economic Survey in the Municipalities of Zlatitsa, Pirdop, Chelopech and Chavdar

As part of a mine development project in the village of Chelopech, Vitosha Research carried out a socio-economic survey of the municipalities of Pirdop, Zlatitsa, Chelopech and Chavdar. Again in-depth interviews with local govern­ment and community members and desk research were used to collect data on local infrastructure, demography, social-assistance, ecology and economy.

 

II. Study of Corruption

1. Corruption Monitoring System of Coalition 2000

The Corruption Monitoring System of Coalition 2000 (CMS) was developed and implemented by Vitosha Research in the period 1998-2004. CMS includes a set of qualitative and quantitative surveys, targeting different social groups. In 2004 Vitosha Research continued conducting studies on the spread of corruption in the country, attitudes to it, and assessments of corruption among the population, business circles and public servants. A total of five surveys were carried out—two national representative studies among the adult Bulgarian population, two surveys among businesses and one among tax officials.

Jointly with Coalition 2000, four press conferences were held, at which the results of the surveys on corruption among the population, the business sector and tax officers were presented. The research data was summarized in six analytical reports.

2. The Role of Informal Networks in Socio-Economic and Political Life in Bulgaria (2004 - 2005)

The project is carried out in Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic under the leadership of the Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research. The main objec­tive of the project is to establish the role of informal networks in politics, the economy, the judicial system and public life. Their positive and negative aspects are analyzed from the point of view of the establishment of the principles of lawfulness, transparen­cy in government, freedom of speech, civic participation and the establish­ment of a functioning market economy in Bulgaria. In 2004 Vitosha Research conducted 90 in-depth interviews with government members and national representatives, Bulgarian and foreign businessmen, representatives of the media, of Bulgarian and international non-governmental organizations, and structures of the European Union and of the Council of Europe in Bulgaria.

During the second stage of the project, a round table was held for presenting, discussing, interpreting and supple­menting the results from the survey of informal networks in Bulgaria. A gen­eral comparative analysis was made of the interviews conducted in the four countries, included in the research. In the forthcoming third stage of the project Vitosha Research will conduct a quantitative study among representa­tives of the Bulgarian elites

3. Survey of Ministry of Interior Officers

In 2004 a second survey was carried out among employees in the Ministry of Interior (Mol) on the problems of corruption (Vitosha Research conducted the first survey in 2003). The main goal of the survey, carried out as part of a twining project between the Mol and the UK Home Office, was to assess and analyze the level of knowledge, understanding, confidence and support among the employees of all Mol agencies with regard to the Mol's Anti-corruption Strategy.

The two surveys provide an opportunity to identify the trends in the opinions and attitudes of Mol employees regarding corruption. The main points of the analysis included:

• An assessment of the general levels of corruption in the country and in the Mol system;

• Spread of corruption in the different Mol agencies;

• Main factors favoring the spread of corruption in the Mol;

• Practical effectiveness of corruption (the extent to which corruption is an efficient mean of addressing per­sonal problems);

• Social values and corruption;

• Corrupt practices;

• Future expectations for curbing cor­ruption and anti-corruption measures.

III. IT Surveys

In 2004 Vitosha Research continued to study the trends in the development of information technologies (IT) in Bulgaria and monitor their penetration in businesses, government administration and households. Current data about the monitored indicators was collected in a series of omnibus surveys. In addition, two surveys were carried out among representatives of the business sector. Data was obtained enabling a comprehensive assessment of the development and spread of IT in Bulgarian society and in areas, such as:

- access of citizens and businesses to computers and the Internet,

- size and structure of Internet consumption,

- extent and forms of use of the Internet by the population and businesses,

- e-commerce and businesses,

- entry of the Internet and new technologies in education estab­lishments,

- provision of e-government services.

1. The Information Society in Bulgaria - Current State, Trends and Development

This project is implemented jointly with the Ministry of Transport and Communications. At the end of 2004, Vitosha Research collected data on a number of indicators, characterizing the information society in Bulgaria. The findings portrayed the population's use of IT technologies:

• Approximately, 27% of the people have Internet access at work.

• Almost twice higher is the share of those who have access to the Internet at home - 45%;

• The increased use of the Internet has wider economic implications. Some 3.8% of the respondents have bought and sold goods or services on the Internet in the previous three months;

• Those who use the Internet at school or university total 4.0% of the general population. There is one school computer for an average of 36 to 47 students;

• 0.4% watch television on the Internet;

• 6.2% use the Internet at least once a day;

• 29.3% of companies in Bulgaria have their own website. Twice more have access to the Internet.

2. Assessment of the Website of the World Bank Mission in Bulgaria

The main aim of the project was to evaluate the draft design of the new website of the World Bank mission to Bulgaria. Eight focus group discus­sions were held with students, post­graduates, researchers, government administration officials, non-govern­mental organizations representatives, journalists and businessmen. Extensive information was collected about the impressions, opinions, evaluations and recommendations of the participants in the study for the improvement of the website's format, structure, func­tions, contents, navigation, and pos­sibilities for communication with the World Bank.

IV. Public Opinion and Elite Surveys Public Opinion Surveys

 

1. Eurobarometer

A national representative Eurobarome­ter survey focused on the general atti­tude of the Bulgarian citizens towards the European Union (EU), their opini­on and assessments of the process of the European integration of Bulgaria and other relevant socio-economic and public themes was carried out in 2004. The comparative data and summarized results of the research conducted in Bulgaria and in the other EU candidate countries are being published by the European Commission.

 

2. Bulgarian Public Opinion Polls

The survey of public opinion in Bulgaria was assigned to Vitosha Research by the "Princeton Survey Research Associates". The main task of the research was to poll the Bulgarian citizens on different

national and international problems. The following issues were examined:

• The most acute problems facing the respondents and their families;

• The most serious problems facing Bulgaria;

• The most important threats to the world;

• Assessment of the current economic situation in Bulgaria;

• Attitude to globalization;

• Assessment of the influence of different foreign companies on the development of the country, etc.

 

3. Public Perceptions on Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) Issues in Bulgaria.

In 2004, as part of a regional project of the South East Europe Clearinghouse on Small Arms and Light Weapons (SEESAC), Vitosha Research and CSD conducted four surveys that examined the spread, the impact, the public perceptions, and the control over small arms and light weapons (SALW) in Bulgaria. Vitosha Research conducted the public perceptions survey, which analyzed the perceptions and attitudes to firearms, the reasons for possession, the ideas of their spread, the effect of the arms situation on the sense of security in the country and the attitude to the regulation and control over production, trade, and possession of firearms. The survey included focus group discussions and a quantitative study.

4. Crime Victimization Survey

In 2004 Vitosha Research carried out a study of the victims of crime in Bulgaria. The survey used the meth­odology developed by UN to conduct International Crime Victimization Surveys. The aim of this survey was to study the different aspects of crime, the frequency of victimization, the vic­tims perceptions of the severity of the crimes, assessment of the actions of the police, etc. On the basis of the collected information an attempt will be made to map out measures for the effective counteraction to the different forms of organized and street crime.

Elite Surveys

1. The Bulgarian Elites

The aim of the survey was to study the opinions, assessments, attitudes of Bulgaria's elites to some current issues of economic and political life in Bulgaria. The survey was conducted among 768 representatives of the political, business, scientific, media and arts elites in Bulgaria.

2. Bulgaria's Image among Foreign Citizens and Businessmen

As part of an initiative of The Ministry of Economy Vitosha Research carried out a survey among foreign citizens and businessmen who have lasting relations with Bulgaria. The survey was part of the Promoting Bulgaria project, which is conducted jointly with other ministries within the framework of the Communication Strategy for accession to the European Union. To help design

a successful strategy for promoting Bulgaria to the world the survey studied the image of Bulgaria among foreign citizens that live permanently or temporarily in Bulgaria, businessmen working in or with Bulgaria, and return tourists .

IV. Marketing and Media Surveys

The marketing and media surveys covered mainly the following areas:

• The consumption of alcohol and spirits;

• The consumer drug market in Sofia;

• The insurance market in Bulgaria;

• The automobile market in Bulgaria;

• The banking sector in Bulgaria;

• Telephone services;

• Assessment of an exhibition of infor­mation technologies - Byte Expo.

In 2004 Vitosha Research carried out several media surveys, such as a study of the television audiences in Bulgaria, monitoring of the BBC audience in Bulgaria, or monitoring of advertisements on New Europe radio.

V. Publications

The results of the surveys conducted in 2004 were summarized in over 20 analytical reports, some of which are:

1. Informal Networks in Bulgaria, June 2004

2. The Hidden Economy in Bulgaria, March 2004

3. Corruption Indexes of Coalition 2000

4. Administrative and Regulatory Costs and the Investment Climate in Bulgaria, May 2004

5. Problems of Bulgarian Business, Proceeding from the Endorsed Regulatory Regimes, June 2004

6. Study of the Possibilities for Expansion of the Project "Social Services Against New Employment" in New Pilot Municipalities, June 2004

7. Analysis of Focus Groups on SALW Issues in Bulgaria, August 2004

8. Bulgaria's Image among Foreign Ci­tizens and Businessmen, November 2004

9. Assessment of the Bulgarian Web­site of the World Bank, March -June 2004

10. Country WID Profile - Bulgaria, December 2004

11. Baseline Socio-Economic Survey in Krumovgrad Project Impact Area, October 2004