|
Vitosha Research conducted a social survey to register the
attitude of the Bulgarian populace towards mass privatization on
the eve of its actual start. The data was collected in November
1995. The survey method was the standardized face-to-face
interview. The sample size is 2652 and is representative for the
population of Bulgaria aged 18 to 60. The sample is representative
separately for the population of Sofia (N = 727), Plovdiv (N = 920)
and Varna (N = 967) in the above mentioned age interval. This
design of the first quantitative survey was preferred to the
national representative sample, because according to preliminary
data, information residents in small towns and villages had about
the forthcoming mass privatization was extremely low.
The conducted survey is the first in a series of projects which
aim to study the problems of privatization and economic reforms in
Bulgaria. Basic problems which were revealed in the survey
include:
- The level of information the populace has about the
Government's plan for mass privatization.
- The Bulgarian people's readiness to participate in
the mass privatization.
- Their estimation of probable consequences from mass
privatization.
- People's readiness to entrust their privatization
bonds to be invested by privatization funds.
- The population's level of trust in the financial
institutions connected with the mass privatization.
The results of the survey can be summarized as follows:
- As a whole, the level of information the population
has about the mass privatization is relatively low. However, in
comparison with preceding surveys we now have a trend towards
heightening the level of information. This tendency could be
explained with the more frequent discussion of mass privatization
in the mass media. However, it is obvious that the majority of
people still do not consider themselves to be a part of the
privatization process, and thus it is still in the periphery of
mass awareness.
- Compared with the level of information people have,
the readiness for participation in the mass privatization is
relatively high. A very strong relationship exists between the
information about the mass privatization and the readiness to buy
privatization bonds: the greater the awareness about the process,
the higher the probability of participation in the mass
privatization.
- The relatively low level of information about the
bond mass privatization as a whole and the difficulties in
foreseeing the course and consequences of the process are making
many people skeptical about the overall results which could be
expected. A significant number of people are convinced that the
mass privatization is very likely to be a hidden process, over
which Bulgarian society will not be able to exercise sufficient
control.
- One of the aspects of participation in the process
of mass privatization is to entrust the privatization bonds to be
managed by investment funds. People have a rather negative attitude
to the management of privatization bonds by financial institutions.
The popularity of having investment funds as financial institutions
managing the privatization bonds is significantly lower than that
of banks.
Vitosha Research conducted a social survey to register the
attitude of the Bulgarian populace towards mass privatization on
the eve of its actual start. The data was collected in November
1995. The survey method was the standardized face-to-face
interview. The sample size is 2652 and is representative for the
population of Bulgaria aged 18 to 60. The sample is representative
separately for the population of Sofia (N = 727), Plovdiv (N = 920)
and Varna (N = 967) in the above mentioned age interval.
The conducted survey is the first in a series of projects which
aim to study the problems of privatization and economic reforms in
Bulgaria. Basic problems which were revealed in the survey
include:
- The level of information the populace has about the
Government's plan for mass privatization.
- The Bulgarian people's readiness to participate in
the mass privatization.
- Their estimation of probable consequences from mass
privatization.
- People's readiness to entrust their privatization
bonds to be invested by privatization funds.
- The population's level of trust in the financial
institutions connected with the mass privatization.
1. Level of information about the Governmental
project of mass privatization
As a whole, the level of information the population has about
the mass privatization is relatively low. (Graph 1).
Graph 1:
Level of information about the mass privatization
However, in comparison with preceding surveys we now have a
trend towards heightening the level of information. This tendency
could be explained with the more frequent discussion of mass
privatization in the mass media. However, it is obvious that the
majority of people still do not consider themselves to be a part of
the privatization process, and thus it is still in the periphery of
mass awareness.
The level of information about the mass privatization in
different social-demographic groups varies (Table 1). These
findings are summarized as follows:
- The level of information is highest for the
respondents with university education and lowest for people with
primary and basic education.
- The most well informed are people of middle age -
30-49 years old.
- In terms of social-professional groups, the most
well informed are managers and civil servants. The awareness with
the Governmental project is lowest for students, housewives and the
unemployed.
Table 1:
Level of information about mass privatization by
social-demographic groups
+---------------------+---------------------------------------+-------+
| |Information about mass privatization | Total |
| | | |
| +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ |
| |I know |I know |Acquain| Not | No | |
| |nothing| it |ted in |interes|answer | |
| | |exists |general|ted | | |
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Age | | | | | | |
|18-29 | 22.8%| 46.6%| 23.1%| 7.1%| .3%| 100.0%|
|30-39 | 14.8%| 44.5%| 33.7%| 6.7%| .3%| 100.0%|
|40-49 | 13.5%| 44.8%| 33.7%| 7.2%| .8%| 100.0%|
|50+ | 14.9%| 50.0%| 27.5%| 6.6%| 1.0%| 100.0%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Family per member | | | | | | |
| income | | | | | | |
|Up to 2200 | 29.1%| 42.6%| 17.4%| 9.6%| 1.3%| 100.0%|
|2201-3000 | 17.7%| 47.3%| 27.5%| 6.7%| .8%| 100.0%|
|3001-4000 | 9.9%| 48.1%| 34.1%| 7.6%| .2%| 100.0%|
|4001-5000 | 10.5%| 51.2%| 32.7%| 5.6%| .0%| 100.0%|
|Over 5000 | 12.6%| 42.2%| 38.9%| 5.9%| .4%| 100.0%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Education | | | | | | |
|Primary | 67.6%| 13.5%| 5.4%| 10.8%| 2.7%| 100.0%|
|Basic | 34.0%| 44.9%| 15.0%| 4.9%| 1.2%| 100.0%|
|Secondary/Semi-higher| 16.0%| 50.7%| 25.0%| 7.9%| .5%| 100.0%|
|Higher | 5.6%| 35.9%| 52.7%| 5.1%| .7%| 100.0%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Occupation | | | | | | |
|Managers | 6.6%| 40.2%| 48.8%| 4.1%| .2%| 100.0%|
|Workers | 17.8%| 51.0%| 23.7%| 7.0%| .5%| 100.0%|
|Civil servants | 10.0%| 41.4%| 40.5%| 7.7%| .5%| 100.0%|
|Stud/Housewife/Unempl| 22.9%| 45.4%| 22.5%| 8.5%| .7%| 100.0%|
|Pensioner | 19.7%| 49.0%| 21.6%| 8.7%| 1.0%| 100.0%|
|Other | 15.9%| 41.7%| 34.1%| 6.8%| 1.5%| 100.0%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
2. Readiness for participation in the mass
privatization
Compared with the level of information people have, the
readiness for participation in the mass privatization is relatively
high (Graph 2).
Graph 2:
Readiness for taking part in the mass privatization
Varying levels of readiness for participating mass privatization
exist among different social-demographic groups. The data, showing
this relationship, is presented in Table 2 and is summarized as
follows:
- The readiness for taking part in mass privatization
is highest among people with university education and lowest among
respondents with primary and basic education.
- In terms of social-professional groups, the highest
level of readiness is observed in those groups for which a high
level of interest in mass privatization would be expected:
managers, civil servants and workers.
- In terms of income groups the highest relative
share of people ready to buy privatization bonds are those with
household income per member above BGL 4000.
Table 2:
Readiness for taking part in mass privatization by
social-demographic characteristics
+-----------------+---------------------------------------+-------+
| | Would you make use of | Total |
| | privatization bonds | |
| +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ |
| | Yes |Hesita | No | Don't | No | |
| | |tion | | know |answer | |
| | | | | | | |
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Age | | | | | | |
|18-29 | 37.6%| 19.5%| 29.1%| 13.2%| .7%| 100.0%|
|30-39 | 41.1%| 20.6%| 27.4%| 9.1%| 1.8%| 100.0%|
|40-49 | 41.2%| 20.9%| 27.6%| 9.5%| .9%| 100.0%|
|50+ | 36.1%| 16.8%| 34.7%| 10.7%| 1.7%| 100.0%|
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Family per member| | | | | | |
| income | | | | | | |
|Up to 2200 | 28.4%| 18.3%| 34.2%| 16.4%| 2.7%| 100.0%|
|2201-3000 | 33.5%| 19.0%| 34.4%| 11.8%| 1.2%| 100.0%|
|3001-4000 | 39.5%| 21.9%| 29.2%| 9.3%| .0%| 100.0%|
|4001-5000 | 48.9%| 20.8%| 23.0%| 6.4%| 1.0%| 100.0%|
|Over 5000 | 49.0%| 18.5%| 24.6%| 7.3%| .6%| 100.0%|
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Education | | | | | | |
|Primary | 22.2%| 5.6%| 33.3%| 38.9%| .0%| 100.0%|
|Basic | 26.4%| 15.4%| 38.2%| 17.5%| 2.4%| 100.0%|
|Secon/Semi-higher| 37.0%| 19.6%| 31.7%| 10.5%| 1.1%| 100.0%|
|Higher | 52.1%| 22.2%| 19.7%| 5.0%| 1.0%| 100.0%|
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Occupation | | | | | | |
|Managers | 50.1%| 21.1%| 23.0%| 4.8%| 1.0%| 100.0%|
|Workers | 37.0%| 21.8%| 29.4%| 10.7%| 1.0%| 100.0%|
|Civil servants | 43.2%| 23.2%| 23.2%| 8.6%| 1.8%| 100.0%|
|Stud/Hwife/Unempl| 36.2%| 16.5%| 32.8%| 13.6%| 1.0%| 100.0%|
|Pensioner | 25.5%| 14.9%| 42.8%| 15.4%| 1.4%| 100.0%|
|Other | 46.2%| 11.4%| 30.3%| 10.6%| 1.5%| 100.0%|
+-----------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
As expected, a very strong relationship exists between the level of
awareness of the mass privatization and the readiness to buy
privatization bonds: the higher the self-assessment of one's
knowledge of the mass privatization scheme, the greater the
interest in participation in the process (Graph 3).
Graph 3:
Readiness for taking part in mass privatization by self-assessment
about the level of information
3. Probable consequences of mass
privatization
The relatively low level of information about the
bond mass privatization as a whole and the difficulties in
foreseeing the course and consequences of the process are making
many people skeptical about the overall results which could be
expected. From this point of view the most important problem of
mass privatization is: who (individuals, groups or institutions)
will benefit from the process. Such a question/problem should not
be perceived literally. The assessment of that who is most likely
to win from mass privatization is a sign of the way people are
thinking about mass privatization, in which way they perceive its
goals, objectives, probable results and legitimacy.
The data collected in November 1995 are quite similar to data from
preceding surveys and shows the "dirty money" owners as the group
which will benefit most from mass privatization (Graph 4). A
significant number of people are convinced that mass privatization
is very likely to be a hidden process, over which Bulgarian society
will not be able to exercise sufficient control.
Graph 4:
Assessment of probable winners from mass privatization (%)
The opinions given as to those most likely to benefit from the mass
privatization process are shown according to the social-demographic
characteristics in Table 3 and are summarized as follows:
- People with lower education generally face greater
difficulties in identifying potential consequences from the mass
privatization - 64.9 % of the respondents with primary school
education were unable to answer that question.
- In terms of occupation, age and household income
per member, the respondents who are most informed and ready to
participate in the mass privatization are those who think the
"dirty money" owners will be the ones who would benefit most.
Table 3:
Opinions about the "winners" from mass privatization
+-----------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+------+
| | Who will benefit from the mass privatization | Total|
| +------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+ |
| | Every|The |State |"Dirty|Priva-|Politi|The | Work|Nobody| Do | No | |
| |body |banks|admini|money"| te |cians |foreig| ers | will |not |answer| |
| |will | |strati|owners| busi| |ners | | win |know |/Refu-| |
| |win | |on | |ness | | | | | |sal | |
+-----------------+------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+------+
|Age | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|18-29 | 8.7%| 6.0%| 8.0%| 24.3%| 6.8%| 6.5%| 2.2%| 5.7%| 2.2%| 27.4%| 2.1%|100.0%|
|30-39 | 8.2%| 7.4%| 9.0%| 28.9%| 6.1%| 6.3%| 1.5%| 5.2%| 1.3%| 22.8%| 3.2%|100.0%|
|40-49 | 7.4%| 9.6%| 9.3%| 30.2%| 6.4%| 5.7%| 1.4%| 5.1%| 2.3%| 19.7%| 2.9%|100.0%|
|50+ | 6.7%| 7.4%| 7.5%| 33.2%| 6.0%| 4.6%| 1.9%| 3.8%| 2.4%| 23.4%| 3.2%|100.0%|
+-----------------+------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+------+
|Family per | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| member income | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|Up to 2200 | 3.8%| 6.1%| 8.2%| 24.4%| 7.6%| 6.1%| 1.3%| 5.1%| 2.9%| 30.5%| 4.0%|100.0%|
|2201-3000 | 5.9%| 8.8%| 9.5%| 28.8%| 4.2%| 6.4%| 2.8%| 4.7%| 1.6%| 24.4%| 2.8%|100.0%|
|3001-4000 | 8.4%| 8.0%| 8.2%| 32.9%| 7.3%| 6.3%| 1.0%| 5.7%| 1.7%| 18.2%| 2.3%|100.0%|
|4001-5000 | 8.4%| 6.7%| 7.4%| 33.0%| 7.1%| 5.2%| 2.0%| 4.2%| 1.5%| 22.2%| 2.5%|100.0%|
|Over 5000 | 12.1%| 8.2%| 9.5%| 28.6%| 6.8%| 4.7%| 1.4%| 5.6%| 2.7%| 18.7%| 1.6%|100.0%|
+-----------------+------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+------+
|Education | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|Primary | .0%| 8.1%| .0%| 8.1%| 2.7%| 5.4%| 2.7%| .0%| 2.7%| 64.9%| 5.4%|100.0%|
|Basic | 4.9%| 6.9%| 11.0%| 16.7%| 4.9%| 6.9%| 1.6%| 2.4%| 2.8%| 37.4%| 4.5%|100.0%|
|Secon/Semi-higher| 6.5%| 7.1%| 8.3%| 31.5%| 6.8%| 5.8%| 2.1%| 4.9%| 2.1%| 22.2%| 2.8%|100.0%|
|Higher | 13.0%| 9.8%| 8.4%| 29.7%| 6.0%| 5.1%| .7%| 6.3%| 1.7%| 17.0%| 2.2%|100.0%|
+-----------------+------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+------+
|Occupation | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|Managers | 10.3%| 9.9%| 8.6%| 32.4%| 5.5%| 4.6%| .8%| 6.1%| 1.1%| 17.0%| 3.8%|100.0%|
|Workers | 5.2%| 6.4%| 10.1%| 28.3%| 7.2%| 6.1%| 2.1%| 5.2%| 2.9%| 24.0%| 2.5%|100.0%|
|Civil servants | 13.2%| 8.2%| 8.2%| 29.2%| 4.6%| 3.7%| 2.3%| 5.9%| 1.8%| 19.6%| 3.2%|100.0%|
|Stud/Hwife/Unempl| 7.7%| 7.6%| 7.4%| 26.5%| 7.4%| 7.6%| 1.9%| 3.8%| 1.7%| 26.3%| 2.2%|100.0%|
|Pensioner | 5.3%| 6.8%| 5.3%| 33.5%| 4.4%| 4.4%| 1.0%| 2.9%| 2.4%| 30.1%| 3.9%|100.0%|
|Other | 11.5%| 8.5%| 7.7%| 32.3%| 4.6%| 4.6%| 2.3%| 3.8%| 1.5%| 21.5%| 1.5%|100.0%|
+-----------------+------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+------+
4. Willingness to entrust the management of
the privatization bonds to investment funds
One of the aspects of participation in the process of mass
privatization is to entrust the privatization bonds to be managed
by investment funds. The most frequent response was from those
respondents who are not amenable to this opportunity (Graph 5).
Graph 5:
Willingness to entrust the management of the privatization bonds to
investment funds
The answers of respondents, in terms of age, level of education,
household income per member and occupation exhibit a common
tendency. In all groups the share of those who would not entrust
their privatization bonds to management by investment funds, is the
highest. As would be expected, groups which have a direct interest
in the privatization process show a greater willingness to submit
their bonds to an investment fund. The share of respondents who
have no information about the process, and that is why they do not
know whether they would prefer that opportunity for participation
in mass privatization, is high, too.
5. Confidence in financial institutions as
prospective participants in time of mass
privatization
The unwillingness to submit purchased privatization bonds to
investment funds is confirmed by the response to the question:
"Would you let one of the following institutions manage your
privatization bonds?". The responses are presented in Table 4.
Table 4:
Willingness of respondents to submit their privatization bonds for
management to one of the following financial institutions (%)
| |
Yes
|
No
|
Will not participate
|
| State Savings Bank |
55.0
|
30.3
|
14.7
|
| First Private Bank |
32.7
|
51.9
|
15.4
|
| United Bulgarian Bank |
24.1
|
60.1
|
15.8
|
| "Mollov" Commercial Bank |
15.4
|
68.4
|
16.2
|
| Post Bank |
15.3
|
68.7
|
16.0
|
| European Investment Fund |
13.2
|
70.0
|
16.9
|
| Tourist Sport Bank (TS Bank) |
12.6
|
71.3
|
16.9
|
| Investment Fund "Razvitie" |
11.8
|
71.3
|
16.9
|
| "Biochim" Commercial Bank |
11.7
|
71.2
|
16.1
|
| Bulgarian-American Investment Fund |
6.6
|
76.5
|
16.9
|
| "Chimimport" Investment Fund |
4.5
|
78.6
|
16.9
|
| First Investment Fund |
3.4
|
79.6
|
15.8
|
The Bulgarian public has a rather negative attitude towards the
management of privatization bonds by financial institutions:
- Banks are trusted more than investment funds. The
State Savings Bank enjoys the highest degree of confidence.
- The popularity of investment funds as financial
institutions handling privatization bonds is much lower than that
of banks. The "Razvitie" Investment Fund and the European
Investment Fund enjoy a relatively high popularity.
- The First Investment Fund, the "Chimimport"
Investment Fund and Bulgarian-American Investment Fund rank lowest
in popularity.
In order to gauge the knowledge level of the respondents about the
existing investment funds, the interview included non-existent
institutions such as the European Investment Fund, in which a
relatively large share of the respondents expressed confidence.
This suggests only one possibility for manipulating the public -
advertising the titles of high quality institutions.
The confidence in different financial institutions in Sofia,
Plovdiv and Varna shows different dimensions. The specific
configuration is shown in Table 5 and is summarized as follows:
- State Savings Bank, First Private Bank and United
Bulgarian Bank are among the most trusted. The confidence in these
institutions is higher in Varna and Plovdiv compared to Sofia.
- The respondents in Plovdiv show less interest in
the mass privatization process compared to those in Sofia and
Varna.
- In general, the respondents in Plovdiv and Varna
are less inclined to submit their privatization bonds in the newly
established investment funds than the respondents in Sofia.
Table 5:
Willingness of respondents to submit their privatization bonds for
management to investment funds
in Sofia, Plovdiv and Varna
+---------------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| | Name of the city |
+---------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| | Sofia | Plovdiv | Varna |
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| | Yes | No |Won't | Yes | No | Won't | Yes | No | Won't |
| | | |partici| | |partici| | |partici|
| | | |pate | | |pate | | |pate |
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|First Private Bank | 8.8%| 14.1%| 3.0%| 11.2%| 19.3%| 8.1%| 12.7%| 18.5%| 4.4%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Post Bank | 4.9%| 18.7%| 3.1%| 5.7%| 24.8%| 8.2%| 4.7%| 25.2%| 4.8%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|State Savings Bank | 12.1 | 11.0%| 2.9%| 18.0%| 11.9%| 7.7%| 24.8%| 7.4%| 4.1%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Investment Fund | | | | | | | | | |
| "Razvitie" | 3.0%| 20.4%| 3.3%| 3.5%| 26.7%| 8.6%| 5.4%| 24.2%| 5.0%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Bulgarian-American | | | | | | | | | |
| Investment Fund | 1.6%| 22.1%| 3.3%| 2.6%| 26.8%| 8.6%| 2.4%| 27.5%| 5.0%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Investment Fund | | | | | | | | | |
| "Chimimport" | 1.3%| 22.3%| 3.4%| 1.7%| 27.9%| 8.5%| 1.5%| 28.3%| 5.0%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|European Investment | | | | | | | | | |
| Fund | 3.9%| 19.6%| 3.3%| 4.0%| 25.5%| 8.6%| 5.3%| 24.8%| 5.1%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|"Mollov" Bank | 4.3%| 19.0%| 3.1%| 5.8%| 24.6%| 8.1%| 5.4%| 24.7%| 4.9%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Tourist Sport Bank | 3.5%| 19.7%| 3.1%| 5.6%| 25.0%| 8.1%| 3.5%| 26.6%| 4.8%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|First Investment Fund| 1.5%| 22.3%| 3.3%| .8%| 29.2%| 8.5%| 1.2%| 28.1%| 5.2%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|United Bulgarian | | | | | | | | | |
| Bank | 5.6%| 17.8%| 3.1%| 7.6%| 22.5%| 8.1%| 10.8%| 19.9%| 4.5%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|"Biochim" Bank | 2.6%| 20.4%| 3.2%| 3.2%| 27.1%| 8.2%| 6.0%| 24.5%| 4.8%|
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
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